The Falling COVID Case Rate is Not so Rosy for the Unvaccinated
July 8, 2021
By: Jody Moss
Email: jody.moss@dshs.wa.gov
Every week I prepare a COVID-19 Case Count by county for our organization and share it with all employees. It includes graphs of new infections by county each week, and overall case count, and numbers of people vaccinated. After a year of this, it is gratifying to see those lines flattening and going down in most places. And the bar chart of vaccinated people getting longer in all counties.
But that is not the whole story. As Dr. Umair Shah, the Secretary of Health for Washington State has commented, this may be “a tale of two societies”. One for those who are vaccinated and one for those who are not.
I’m going to throw a lot of numbers at you so put on your mathematics hat. And later I’ll tell you why these numbers are important. Meanwhile please don’t glaze over like it is math class again.
The bigger picture is that 97% of the infections in our state currently are occurring in people who have not been vaccinated. The rate of infections is still going strong for this group. According to an article in the Washington Post from late May, the infection rate for unvaccinated people is 73% higher than what we see in all the falling lines and good news. The adjusted national death rate is roughly the same as it was 2 months ago for people who are not vaccinated. The adjusted hospital rate for the unvaccinated is just as high as it was 3 months ago when COVID-19 was beginning to rise again. Unvaccinated young adults are being infected at the same rate they were in January when the pandemic was raging. And because of the more severe variants that are active in our state, the virus is more virulent (spreads with much greater ease) and these variants are resulting in more than double the hospitalization rate and increased death rate among this unvaccinated population.
People have declined to get vaccinated for many reasons. There are people who have immune system problems that limit their ability to get the vaccine. Others are choosing to wait and see if the vaccination is safe, or not get the vaccine at all because they don’t believe in or trust vaccines, they don’t like needles, because they do not think COVID-19 will affect them, or if so, only mildly, or perhaps they do not believe the pandemic exists at all, despite the 174,297,138 million cases and 3,749,534 deaths worldwide as of June 7th 2021, and the 34,221,250 cases and 612,588 deaths in the United States.
This cohort of people may feel vindicated that the infection rate is falling. Sadly, it is not falling for them.
We tend to hang out with people of like beliefs. Because of this, public health and medical experts expect to see continued “clusters” of infections in the unvaccinated population.
You may have heard of breakthrough infections – those COVID-19 infections that occur in a person who is fully vaccinated. There have been approximately .01% of known breakthrough COVID-19 infections between January 1 and April 30th according to the CDC. This is even less than the anticipated of the two vaccines being administered at that time – Moderna at 95% and Pfizer BioNTech at 98%. With those numbers we would expect breakthrough infections to be 5% and 2%. It is highly likely that some people who became infected experienced such a mild symptoms that they never even got tested, so the actual rate is likely a little higher, but still well below the 5% or 2%.
Here is more good news – most of the breakthrough cases have been milder and less likely to experience a serious outcome. Only .01% of the breakthrough infections were hospitalized at all and some were admitted for something else and then found to have asymptomatic COVID-19.
Not all of the breakthrough infections received the kind of test that can determine the variant. Of the cases tested with the sequencing information, 64% were from the more concerning COVID-19 variants according to the Center for Disease Control. Of this breakthrough group, 1.56% died and they had a median age of 82 (or an age range 71 to 89 years old). Some in this number were admitted to the hospital for other reasons and died of other causes.
So what is the point of all of this? Yes, we are getting better, able to gather and be out and about, without masks even. But COVID-19 is not going away and we will continue to lose members of our community, and mostly that will be older members as those are the ones most at risk in this scenario. It will also impact those with immune disorders who may never be able to go without a mask again.
The people who are unvaccinated in your life may bring COVID-19 to your doorstep. It could be a family gathering, or a graduation party, or a grandchild or great grand child’s birthday party. If you have not been vaccinated, please consider doing so now. Please encourage the people in your life to get a vaccine. It is said that we should allow time and many people currently digging in their heels will eventually decide to get a vaccine. Talk to your loved ones and listen to their concerns and acknowledge them, but ask them to have a conversation with their doctor about it and then decide. Ask your sons and daughters to help their 12 and older children get a vaccine.
And here some good news that may help them change their minds, Washington State is holding a million dollar lottery. If you have already been vaccinated in Washington State, then you are already entered in this lottery. Drawings will be held weekly with 4 people winning $250,000 and one lucky vaccinated individual will win $1,000,000! There are many other prizes like college tuition, airline and game tickets and possibly more emerging. The final drawing will be on July 13th so get your vaccines scheduled.
Help us get to 70-80% or herd immunity. We can do this.
If you need help scheduling a vaccine or getting transportation to a vaccine or are home bound please call our Information and Assistance office nearest you at one of the numbers below.
Jody Moss is the Director of Contracts Management & Planning for the Olympic Area Agency on Aging and can be reached at 360-379-5064. For help with senior or adults with disability questions call Information and Assistance at 360-452-3221 in Clallam and 360-385-2552 in Jefferson.